Ultimate CFB bowl betting guide

The ratings are meant to compare the relative strength of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, which is what we get in bowl games (except for rare cases). 1 Sugar Bowl)

Top five  public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas.

Kansas State (PK) vs. Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTEP (+10) vs. Ohio State

4. Boston College

4. Tennessee

— David Solar

Jay Kornegay’s Top Public Teams

With an abundance of bowl games, many bettors feel obligated to lay down a wager on every game. Concepts of money management and selectivity are often disregarded during bowl season, although many trends fall in line with those we’ve observed during the regular season.

It’s not surprising that our No. Stanford

7. Our stance is rooted in experience: One reason underdogs fare particularly well in low-scoring games is that less scoring naturally leads to closer games, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.

CFB PickCenter »

Key links:

VR line: Kansas State -4

For our value plays, we had six bowl games that had a difference of four points or more between the Las Vegas point spread and the difference in the two teams’ CFB Vegas Rankings. 

VR line: Northern Illinois (+5.5)

Florida State (+9) vs. Alabama (Jan.

After winning four straight to start the season, UCLA lost two in a row, then won five straight before an awful performance against Stanford. This is a time for celebrating the holidays with family and friends, knocking back a glass of eggnog (which, let’s stop kidding ourselves, is really just a socially acceptable way to drink pancake batter one month every year) and engaging in binge football viewing.

Below we provide:

Here are all of the teams participating in bowl season, and how Las Vegas sees them:

To show how close these rankings are, Alabama is ranked a perfect 50, but there are 11 different teams within 10 points of Alabama and 19 different teams within just 12 points of the Crimson Tide.

A subset of No. Michigan State

5. How much time off a team has had before the bowl: “When you are not playing, it’s hard to simulate game speed. How much excitement a team will have headed into the bowl: “You’re looking for a team that is thrilled to be there and looking forward to the game,” White says.

We preach the importance of betting against the public and taking underdogs in games with low totals. The last time Florida State was this large of an underdog was in Week 14 of 2009 against Florida (plus-26).

6. 1 Rose Bowl)

Vegas Rankings of every bowl team.

VR line: Ohio State (+5)

Northern Illinois (+10) vs. Pittsburgh

8. New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (+2.5) vs. Just like the College Football Playoff committee, there was a simple difference of opinion when it came to team value.

The five teams that have taken the most bets over the course of the season, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas, and his staff:

The  best system bets for this bowl season from David Solar of Sports Insights.

3. It’s like driving on the highway at 30 mph,” White says.

The CFB Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers and college football statisticians, including fellow Insider Phil Steele, Vegas handicapper Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet.

VR line: Florida State (+4.5)

Value plays

Betting against the public is a subject we’ve discussed ad nauseam, but it certainly bears repeating: The public loves to bet on favorites and overs, which makes sense since it is human nature to root for winners and scoring.

Here’s a primer that outlines the factors professional bettors consider when wagering on bowl games. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (+3) vs. Alabama

3. Where we saw a difference was in the No. How motivated will the Bulldogs be?

Vegas Ranks line: Georgia Tech +3

Georgia Tech (+7) vs. 2 teams are Alabama and Oregon, and all three handicappers gave the Crimson Tide and Ducks those ratings. Sharp bettors are able to then capitalize on these artificially inflated lines by focusing on teams that are being ignored across the marketplace.

The Buckeyes haven’t been this big of an underdog since Week 4 of 2011 at Nebraska (plus-10). LSU

6. 16.

Chad Millman’s Seven Bowl-Bonanza Rules

1. Arkansas

5. With this in mind, we created a new betting system using our Bet Labs software, which focused on all underdogs with low totals receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets during bowl season.

VR line: Wisconsin (+1)

5. 1 and No. We’ve asked our experienced group of gambling experts, including Chad Millman, Dave Tuley, Phil Steele, Evan Abrams, Brian Edwards, David Solar, Wunderdog and Sal Selvaggio, what they’re focused on during bowl season.

1. Northern Illinois has been in this position before, and Marshall has failed to cover its last three games entering bowl season.

Wisconsin (+6.5) vs. 1 Outback Bowl)

Bowl season is the holy grail of the sports calendar. But fear not, Insider is here to help. Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland (+13.5) vs. Oregon (Jan. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate.”. 3 and 4 spots; some liked Ohio State then TCU, while others liked TCU then Baylor. Utah State

2. Urban Meyer has not been this big of an underdog since he was the head coach at Utah against Texas A&M in 2003.

CFB Vegas Rankings

4. Throw away any games against non-bowl competition. The weather on schools’ respective campuses: “The SEC, Pac-12, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East,” White says. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. Using that baseline, we define a low total as any game with an over/under of 54 or less. Quotes are courtesy of Kenny White, the current COO of Don Best Sports, and Vegas vet Bryan Leonard.

It’s easy to get overwhelmed amid the myriad college football bowl games that will be played between Dec. Taxslayer Bowl: Iowa (+3.5) vs. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Notre Dame (+7.5) vs. 4. This criterion produced a system with a 48-28 ATS record (63.2 percent) with plus-17.18 units won and a 22.6 percent return on investment (ROI).

Ohio State (+9.5) vs. Getting blown out by Ohio State 59-0 in the Big Ten championship game has inflated this spread; according to the handicappers, this should be around Auburn minus-1.

— Evan Abrams

Picks, Picks, Picks

Best Bowl-Season System Plays from Sports Insights

Here are eight plays that match this system:

Enjoy and good luck this bowl season.

1. Meyer is 4-0 as an underdog at Ohio State, which makes this an interesting angle.

7. Emphasize a team’s road performance over its home performance. 2 is bowl experience, but not for the reason you think: “I’m more likely to give a team a higher ranking if it hasn’t been to a bowl for a while because that will generate excitement among the program and fans,” White says.

Our historical database shows that since 2005, the average college football total is 53.66 points. UCLA (Jan. Marshall (Dec. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (+3) vs. Mississippi State (Dec. Auburn (Jan. “What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class,” Leonard says.

2. San Diego State

3. How can you trust UCLA?

Our combined power ratings have Alabama as five points better than Ohio State (the Tide’s 50 rating, minus the Buckeyes’ 45) in the Jan. 1 Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, and Oregon 4.5 points better than Florida State in the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, California.

All odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. 2 Alamo Bowl)

ESPN’s CFB Bowl Mania »

Georgia Tech ended the season on a six-game ATS winning streak and faces a Mississippi State team that just came off a loss against its rival, Ole Miss, in the Egg Bowl after a tremendous start to the season. TCU

2. Consider how the conference is doing in bowls. 31 Orange Bowl)

NIU won its last seven games of the regular season, including a game against Western Michigan, where it was an 8-point underdog. How a team ended the regular season: “Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot?” White asks.

The handicappers believe this is a simple overreaction to the last time the nation saw Wisconsin play. 20 and Jan. “I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas (+5.5) vs. 23 Boca Raton Bowl)

Typically we prefer a larger sample size when creating a new betting system; however, with a limited number of bowl games in our database, this system has proved to be profitable during the regular season as well.

Handicappers’ five best ATS bets, SU bets, O/U bets and potential upsets. Mississippi State

Chad Millman’s seven rules for betting bowl games.

CFB bowl schedule »

To both the pro-Vegas bettor and the casual gambler, Florida State, a team that has won 29 straight games, getting nine points is pretty crazy

Leave a Reply